Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...
Leader sits at 9% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
July 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
June 30
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$125
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 26% chance that Russian forces will capture Orikhiv by July 31, 2026. This reflects traders' assessment of the likelihood and pace of Russian territorial gains in this section of southeastern Ukraine. The probability depends primarily on the current military momentum in the region and Russia's operational capacity to advance against Ukrainian defenses. A key catalyst will be military developments over the next 2-3 months, particularly whether Russian forces achieve sustained breakthrough advances or become operationally stalled. The lower probability on a June 30 deadline (15%) suggests traders expect any Russian entry into Orikhiv, if it occurs, would more likely happen in July than June. Comparison markets show much higher confidence (74%) in Russian entry to Novooleksandrivka by May 31, suggesting traders view different towns as having substantially different timelines.
- ›Current rate of Russian territorial advance in southeast Ukraine and whether it maintains momentum toward Orikhiv
- ›Availability and positioning of Ukrainian defensive forces in and around Orikhiv
- ›The significant gap between near-term (May 31) and mid-term (July 31) probabilities indicates uncertainty about operational tempo rather than ultimate feasibility
- ›Volume and trading patterns on adjacent markets (Novooleksandrivka at 74%, Vasylivka at 50%) provide context for relative difficulty assessments
- ›Logistical sustainability of Russian supply lines and reserves available for sustained offensive operations in the region
What moved the line
- Jun 12June 30↑4pp4→8¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14July 31↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13June 30↓3pp8→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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