Russia coup attempt in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
9%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
1 contracts
Top contract
9¢
$13K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Russia coup attempt in 2026
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
0xf91ca5…3c7d
Analysis
This probability reflects market assessment of the likelihood that a coup attempt occurs in Russia during 2026. At 9%, the market suggests this outcome is considered unlikely but not negligible. The relatively low probability reflects the historical rarity of successful coups in nuclear-armed states and Russia's established power structures, though markets also price in risks from potential military instability, factional tensions within the security apparatus, or cascading effects from ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Key drivers of movement would include major shifts in domestic political stability, significant military setbacks or domestic crises that destabilize institutional control, or unexpected developments within Russia's security and defense establishment. Resolution will depend on how external observers and event participants define and document a coup attempt, with key developments likely to emerge throughout 2026 as the year unfolds.
- ›Russia maintains extensive security apparatus and centralized state control mechanisms that have proven resilient against internal political challenges historically
- ›Ongoing military commitments and potential domestic resource constraints could create pressure points within the Russian military and security establishment
- ›Historical precedent suggests coup attempts in nuclear-armed states face exceptionally high barriers due to institutional safeguards and mutual deterrence among power centers
- ›Market liquidity and contract volume ($12,749 in 24h trading) indicate limited trader participation, potentially affecting probability precision
- ›Definitional clarity on what constitutes a 'coup attempt' will be critical for contract resolution, including threshold for organization level and intent
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.