Which cities will Russia enter by December 31
Leader sits at 38% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Dopropillia
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Druzkhivka
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Kharkiv
0x399858…6584
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Kramatorsk
0x357ee5…4211
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Zaporizhia
0xe97ddd…9b35
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Druzkhivka
0xb7d6db…9b69
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Sloviansk
0xd4aa5c…e041
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Dopropillia
0x6557ff…7e50
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Sumy
0x4d3395…2561
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Kherson
0x465ca3…a443
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Russia will capture at least one of eight specified Ukrainian cities by year-end 2026. The 36% probability for Dopropillia as the leading outcome suggests traders view territorial gains as plausible but not the base case. Market prices vary significantly across cities—Sloviansk and Kramatorsk trade at 22 cents each, indicating moderate expected exposure, while Sumy and Zaporizhia are priced much lower at 9 cents. The current distribution reflects assessments of Russian military capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and the pace of ongoing operations. Key drivers include frontline dynamics in eastern Ukraine, available Russian forces for offensive operations, and logistics constraints. Resolution depends entirely on confirmed Russian control of these cities, which would be established through territorial administrative changes or military occupations recognized by relevant sources before December 31, 2026.
- ›Current Russian frontline positions relative to each city and distance-to-advance required
- ›Availability of Russian reserves and operational tempo compared to 2025-2026 baseline
- ›Ukrainian defensive capacity, counteroffensive capability, and Western military support levels
- ›Historical pace of Russian territorial acquisition in similar operational phases (meters/weeks)
- ›International recognition thresholds for what constitutes 'entering' or controlling a city
What moved the line
- Jun 14Dopropillia↑5pp34→39¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Druzkhivka↑3pp30→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11Dopropillia↓3pp36→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?last 12% · 0d
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by...last 21% · 0d
- Russia coup attempt in 2026last 9% · 0d
- Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...last 19% · 0d
- Bank of Russia decision in Aprillast 37% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.