Sejong Mayoral Election Winner
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cho Sangho
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Choi Min-ho
Spread
94pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$821
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
5 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Sejong Mayoral Election Winner: Cho
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 93% probability that Cho Sangho will win the Sejong mayoral election, reflecting strong confidence in his candidacy relative to the leading alternative, Choi Min-ho. This probability could shift based on campaign developments, public polling releases, or voter sentiment changes in the coming months before the election. The main factors supporting Cho's position appear to be either name recognition, prior electoral performance, endorsements, or demonstrated organizational strength, while downside risks would materialize if a major scandal emerged, polling trends reversed significantly, or a strong third-party challenger gained traction. The election date and any scheduled debates or official voting events will likely serve as key resolution points that could shift market confidence. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited recent position changes and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect deep institutional conviction.
- ›Cho Sangho maintains a 93-to-10 probability ratio over the runner-up, indicating market consensus rather than genuine uncertainty between two viable candidates
- ›Trading volume on both contracts is extremely low (combined ~$8 in 24h), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially uninformed or stale pricing
- ›The 10% assigned to Choi Min-ho represents non-trivial residual probability, indicating markets acknowledge a realistic upset path
- ›No public polling data, scandal reports, or recent campaign events are reflected in the current summary, limiting ability to assess whether pricing reflects current ground conditions
- ›A scheduled election date or pre-election event (debates, primary results, or major endorsements) would serve as the primary catalyst for price adjustment
What moved the line
- May 21Choi Min-ho↑5pp6→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Cho Sangho↓3pp95→92¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Texas Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 96% · 1d
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winnerlast 67% · 1d
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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