Will at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 35 GWdc
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
At least 40 GWdc
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 31, 2027
326 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will at least
Will at least 35 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 35 GWdc
KXSOLAR-26-35
Will at least 55 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 55 GWdc
KXSOLAR-26-55
Will at least 50 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 50 GWdc
KXSOLAR-26-50
Will at least 45 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 45 GWdc
KXSOLAR-26-45
Will at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 40 GWdc
KXSOLAR-26-40
Analysis
This contract asks whether the United States will install at least 40 gigawatts of solar capacity during 2026. The 91% probability reflects market participants' assessment that this installation target is highly likely to be met. Solar deployment has accelerated in recent years due to falling costs, tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, and corporate renewable energy commitments. The main factors supporting high confidence are existing project pipelines and construction timelines already underway; the main downside risks involve supply chain disruptions, permitting delays, or financing constraints. Resolution hinges on year-end 2026 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration or Solar Energy Industries Association reporting total installed capacity for the calendar year.
- ›U.S. solar installations in 2023 totaled approximately 31 GWdc; reaching 40 GWdc represents a 29% increase year-over-year
- ›The Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and investment tax incentives directly reduce the cost of projects that were planned or partially financed before 2026
- ›Utility-scale solar projects under construction have typical 18-36 month lead times; pipeline visibility is relatively high for early-2026 starts
- ›Supply chain constraints for solar panels and inverters have eased substantially since 2021-2022, reducing project delay risk
- ›Manufacturing incentives and tariff structures will influence component costs and completion rates in the second half of 2026
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.