Trump declassifies new UFO files by...
Leader sits at 93% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
May 31
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$35K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Trump declassifies new UFO files by
Analysis
Markets are currently pricing a 77% probability that Trump will declassify new UFO files by December 31, 2026, based primarily on Polymarket pricing. This reflects expectations that any such disclosure would occur within the next seven months. The probability is driven by Trump's stated interest in UFO transparency during his political career and recent executive actions on declassification, though no specific executive orders on UFO files have been announced in 2026 yet. The main countervailing factor is that UFO-related releases often involve inter-agency coordination and national security reviews that can extend timelines. The resolution hinges on whether Trump issues an explicit declassification directive targeting UFO materials, with the December 31 deadline creating a defined window for markets to settle. Related Kalshi contracts suggest elevated trading activity around Trump's executive actions generally (81% on May tariffs), indicating active monitoring of his recent policy moves.
- ›Trump has no publicly announced executive order specifically directing UFO file declassification as of May 2026
- ›Related markets show 84% probability for UFO release 'before 2027,' providing a broader timeframe context
- ›Declassification actions require coordination across multiple agencies (DoD, CIA, NSA), which historically delays timeline expectations
- ›The December 31 deadline represents approximately 244 days from market assessment date, a finite window for executive action
- ›Historical precedent shows Trump issued executive orders on declassification during his first term, establishing baseline likelihood for similar action
What moved the line
- May 8May 31↑44pp36→80¢ · Polymarket
- May 8December 31↑10pp83→93¢ · Polymarket
- May 3May 31↑8pp27→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 7May 31↑5pp31→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 6May 31↓4pp35→31¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 h ago.