Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
1 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$11K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
0x4c8cee…2ede
Analysis
This probability represents the market estimate that Donald Trump will face formal House impeachment charges before December 31, 2026. At 6%, traders are pricing in impeachment as unlikely but not impossible within the next six months. The current level reflects both the Republican-controlled House (which would initiate impeachment) and Trump's substantial political support within the party. Significant downward pressure would require sustained stability in Trump's political position and no major escalating scandals. Conversely, unexpected developments—whether criminal convictions, health crises, or major international incidents—could rapidly increase this probability. The outcome hinges largely on whether House Democrats gain leverage through new information or whether Trump's party remains sufficiently unified to prevent defections on such a consequential vote.
- ›Current House political composition and loyalty dynamics within the Republican caucus
- ›Trajectory of ongoing legal proceedings and potential conviction outcomes before end-2026
- ›Emergence of significant political scandals or major policy disputes between Trump and Congress
- ›Historical precedent: only two presidents impeached in U.S. history; none removed by Senate
- ›Timeline of major political events that could shift party calculus, including potential 2028 campaign dynamics
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.