What is the current probability for "Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 39¢ (39% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 243 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1998.5% and 11.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

KalshiJan 1, 2027243 days left

Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 19¢ spread.

Open on Kalshi JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

39¢

$52K volume

$29K liquidity

100% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$52K

Best sibling

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Ticker

KXCREDITRATING-26DEC31

Price history

39¢ current

+1¢

Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 26¢

Kalshi

19¢ spread

No public depth snapshot is cached for this contract yet.

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXCREDITRATING-26DEC31

Event family

This market.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$52K

Outcomes

Highest price