Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026
Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026 is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
14¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$73K
Identifier
KXCREDITRATING-26DEC31
Aug 6, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$140
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$73K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXCREDITRATING-26DEC31
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$73K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026 14¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.