Democratic Party · CONTROLS-2026
Democratic Party is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 44¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside CONTROLS-2026.
Price history
44¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic Party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Republican Party 55¢
Range
44¢-55¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
CONTROLS-2026-D
Jul 27, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
44¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · CONTROLS-2026
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
44 / 45¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
CONTROLS-2026-D
Event family
CONTROLS-2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican Party 55¢
Current share
51%
Republican Party
kalshi · CONTROLS-2026-R
Democratic Party
kalshi · CONTROLS-2026-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.