Will the price of the USDX be above 101 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 73% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 102
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
Above 104
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$7
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the price of the USDX be above 10
Will the price of the USDX be above 104 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 104
KXUSDX-26-T104
Will the price of the USDX be above 105 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 105
KXUSDX-26-T105
Will the price of the USDX be above 103 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 103
KXUSDX-26-T103
Will the price of the USDX be above 102 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 102
KXUSDX-26-T102
Analysis
This contract asks whether the US Dollar Index will close above 101 on December 31, 2026. At 62% probability, the market implies this outcome is somewhat more likely than not. The USDX reflects the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies. Upward pressure on the index typically comes from higher US interest rates or economic outperformance, while downward pressure results from Fed rate cuts or relative weakness in US growth. The path to resolution depends heavily on Federal Reserve policy decisions throughout 2026, as interest rate expectations are the primary driver of currency valuations. The next major catalyst will be Fed meetings and inflation data releases over the coming months, which will signal the likely trajectory of rates through year-end. Current oil price volatility, reflected in the related contracts, can also influence USD strength through energy-linked economic dynamics.
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance announcements between now and December 2026 will be the primary determinant of dollar strength
- ›Current USDX level relative to 101 and the cumulative movement required over 7 months to reach or exceed that threshold
- ›Relative economic growth and inflation data in the US versus other major economies, which drive comparative currency valuations
- ›Geopolitical developments and capital flows that affect risk appetite and safe-haven demand for US dollars
- ›Market positioning and technical levels in USDX futures, which can create self-reinforcing momentum in either direction
What moved the line
- Jun 24Above 103↑30pp24→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 102↑26pp33→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 103↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 103↓20pp44→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 104↑19pp36→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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