Will Douglas Crockett be the Democratic nominee for VA-09
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$54
11 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
525 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Don Beyer be the Democratic nominee for VA-08
Will Don Beyer be the Democratic nominee for VA-08?: Don Beyer
KXVAPRIMARY-08D26-DBEY
Cluster 2
Will Julie Perry be the Republican nominee for VA-10
Will Julie Perry be the Republican nominee for VA-10?: Julie Perry
KXVAPRIMARY-10R26-JPER
Cluster 3
Will Sam Wong be the Republican nominee for VA-10
Will Sam Wong be the Republican nominee for VA-10?: Sam Wong
KXVAPRIMARY-10R26-SWON
Cluster 4
Will Morgan Griffith be the Republican nominee for VA-09
Will Morgan Griffith be the Republican nominee for VA-09?: Morgan Griffith
KXVAPRIMARY-09R26-MGRI
Cluster 5
Will Douglas Crockett be the Democratic nominee for VA-09
Will Douglas Crockett be the Democratic nominee for VA-09?: Douglas Crockett
KXVAPRIMARY-09D26-DCRO
Cluster 6
Will Adam Murphy be the Democratic nominee for VA-09
Will Adam Murphy be the Democratic nominee for VA-09?: Adam Murphy
KXVAPRIMARY-09D26-AMUR
Cluster 7
Will Joy Powers be the Democratic nominee for VA-09
Will Joy Powers be the Democratic nominee for VA-09?: Joy Powers
KXVAPRIMARY-09D26-JPOW
Cluster 8
Will Brandi Hall be the Democratic nominee for VA-09
Will Brandi Hall be the Democratic nominee for VA-09?: Brandi Hall
KXVAPRIMARY-09D26-BHAL
Cluster 9
Will Tony Sabio be the Republican nominee for VA-08
Will Tony Sabio be the Republican nominee for VA-08?: Tony Sabio
KXVAPRIMARY-08R26-TSAB
Cluster 10
Will Mo Seifeldein be the Democratic nominee for VA-08
Will Mo Seifeldein be the Democratic nominee for VA-08?: Mo Seifeldein
KXVAPRIMARY-08D26-MSEI
Cluster 11
Will Tara Durant be the Republican nominee for VA-07
Will Tara Durant be the Republican nominee for VA-07?: Tara Durant
KXVAPRIMARY-07R26-TDUR
Analysis
Douglas Crockett has a 22% probability of winning the Democratic nomination for Virginia's 9th congressional district. This reflects a competitive primary race where multiple candidates are vying for the nomination. The current probability suggests Crockett is a secondary contender rather than the frontrunner, with the nomination outcome heavily dependent on candidate fundraising, grassroots support, and voter preference shifts as the primary election approaches. The Democratic nomination contest in VA-09 will be resolved when the primary election occurs, at which point the party's delegate selection process will determine the nominee. Factors such as campaign organization, name recognition in the district, and endorsements from local Democratic leaders will influence final vote totals. The low trading volume on Crockett-specific contracts indicates limited market confidence or analyst attention to this particular outcome relative to the broader race dynamics.
- ›Douglas Crockett's 22% probability places him behind multiple other Democratic candidates in the VA-09 primary market
- ›Combined Democratic nominee probabilities exceed 100%, indicating competitive fragmentation in the primary field
- ›Trading volume on the Crockett contract remains minimal ($10 in 24h volume), suggesting low conviction or liquidity among prediction market participants
- ›Adam Murphy, listed as another Democratic nominee candidate, carries identical odds (15%) to Crockett, indicating high uncertainty among candidates
- ›The Republican side shows Morgan Griffith with 95% probability, suggesting Democrats face a heavily Republican district that may affect nominee selection dynamics
What moved the line
- May 22Tara Durant↓61pp67→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Tony Sabio↓42pp71→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Julie Perry↑24pp25→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Julie Perry↓16pp49→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Tony Sabio↓16pp29→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Galway-West By-Election Winnerlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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