What will the median home value in Miami be on April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 64%, Polymarket at 23% — a 41pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
64%
7 contracts
Polymarket
23%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
41pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$100K
10 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
784 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 64¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 41pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (23¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (64¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot” vs “What price will Ethereum hit in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.4%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.4
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.3%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.3
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.2%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.2
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.0%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.0
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.5%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.5
Cluster 2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
Cluster 3
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia
KXREDISTRICTING-26-VIR
Cluster 4
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
What moved the line
- May 8Virginia↓6pp60→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 7↓ 1,500↓6pp48→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Virginia↑5pp57→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Virginia↓4pp61→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 6↓ 1,000↓4pp21→17¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.