What will the median home value in New York City be on April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 63% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 71%, Polymarket at 44% — a 27pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
71%
7 contracts
Polymarket
44%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
27pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$88K
10 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
756 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 71¢ · Polymarket 44¢ · 27pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (44¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (71¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot” vs “What price will Ethereum hit in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.3%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.3
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.2%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.2
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.0%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.0
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.5%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.5
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.4%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.4
Cluster 2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
Cluster 3
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 4
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia
KXREDISTRICTING-26-VIR
Analysis
The 63% probability reflects market expectations that New York City's median home value will fall between $596k and $603k by April 30, 2027. This forecast sits between two divergent assessments: Kalshi traders assign 71% probability, while Polymarket traders assess only 44%, a 27-percentage-point gap suggesting genuine disagreement about NYC housing resilience. The estimate depends primarily on two factors: whether national economic conditions support continued price stability or trigger meaningful declines (unemployment, equity selloffs, or housing weakness), and how NYC specifically performs relative to national trends during what has historically been a period of elevated rates and affordability pressures. The June 17 Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent economic data releases through early 2027 will provide critical signals about monetary policy direction and economic momentum, either supporting the current range or pushing toward more pronounced weakness in high-cost markets like NYC.
- ›Median NYC home value at baseline (Jan 2026) relative to $596-603k range: whether current levels sit above, within, or below this band determines directional bias
- ›National unemployment rate trajectory and Fed policy path: contractionary conditions (unemployment above 5%, continued rate pressure) would pressure prices downward; stable labor markets support the range
- ›Relative performance of NYC vs. national housing indices: NYC has historically shown higher resilience during downturns but also more sensitivity to rate shocks given affordability constraints
- ›Cross-venue probability gap (71% Kalshi vs 44% Polymarket): reflects either different base-rate assumptions about NYC stability or different weighting of recession probability through April 2027
- ›April 30, 2027 timing: covers critical winter/spring season when seasonal factors and Q1 2027 economic data will clarify growth and inflation trajectory
What moved the line
- Jun 5↓ 1,500↑11pp74→85¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5Above 3.5%↑10pp78→88¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3↓ 1,500↑6pp62→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↓ 1,500↑6pp68→74¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ 1,500↑6pp85→91¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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