Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03
Leader sits at 97% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $5.50
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above $4.00
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Sep 4, 2026
34 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $6.50
KXB200WS-26AUG07-6.500
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $7 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $7.00
KXB200WS-26AUG07-7.000
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $6.00
KXB200WS-26AUG07-6.000
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14?: Above $6.00
KXB200WS-26AUG14-6.000
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $5.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14?: Above $5.50
KXB200WS-26AUG14-5.500
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $5.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $5.50
KXB200WS-26AUG07-5.500
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14?: Above $6.50
KXB200WS-26AUG14-6.500
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $5.75 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $5.75
KXB200WS-26AUG07-5.75
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14?: Above $5.00
KXB200WS-26AUG14-5.000
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Sep 11?: Above $4.00
KXB200WS-26SEP11-4.000
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $7.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14?: Above $7.50
KXB200WS-26AUG14-7.500
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $4.00
KXB200WS-26SEP04-4.000
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $4.50
KXB200WS-26AUG28-4.500
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that NVIDIA's B200 GPU will cost more than $3 per hour of compute time on July 3, 2026. The 92% probability reflects strong market confidence in pricing above this threshold, though the sharp decline across higher price points ($3.50, $4.00, $5.00) suggests substantial uncertainty about the upper range. B200 pricing depends on NVIDIA's official rate announcements, cloud provider markups, and competitive pressures from alternative accelerators. The resolution hinges on verified pricing data from major cloud platforms (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) at the specified time. Traders should note the wide gap between near-term confidence (92% above $3) and lower expectations for premium pricing (17% above $5), indicating disagreement about market conditions and competitive dynamics in the compute market over the next two weeks.
- ›Official B200 pricing announcements or leaked rates from NVIDIA between now and July 3
- ›Cloud provider pricing for B200 compute, which typically reflects base costs plus markup and may vary across AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure
- ›Competitive pricing pressure from alternative high-performance GPUs (H100, H200, A100) and other accelerators available on the market
- ›Historical pattern of NVIDIA GPU compute pricing relative to base hardware cost and demand elasticity
- ›Real-time availability and demand signals that could push cloud providers to adjust B200 pricing upward or downward
What moved the line
- Jul 30Above $6.00↓33pp73→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above $6.50↓33pp57→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above $5.50↓30pp92→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above $4.50↓28pp98→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above $5.75↓22pp84→62¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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