Jonquel Jones: 2+ threes
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
10 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
8 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Sabrina Ionescu” vs “Satou Sabally”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Sabrina Ionescu
Cluster 2
Satou Sabally
Cluster 3
Bridget Carleton
Cluster 4
Gabby Williams: 2+ threes: Gabby Williams: 2+
Gabby Williams: 2+ threes: Gabby Williams: 2+
KXWNBA3PT-26MAY25CONNGS-GSGWILLIAMS1-2
Cluster 5
Janelle Salaün: 3+ threes: Janelle Salaün: 3+
Janelle Salaün: 3+ threes: Janelle Salaün: 3+
KXWNBA3PT-26MAY25CONNGS-GSJSALAN13-3
Cluster 6
Veronica Burton: 2+ threes: Veronica Burton: 2+
Veronica Burton: 2+ threes: Veronica Burton: 2+
KXWNBA3PT-26MAY25CONNGS-GSVBURTON22-2
Cluster 7
Jonquel Jones: 2+ threes: Jonquel Jones: 2+
Jonquel Jones: 2+ threes: Jonquel Jones: 2+
KXWNBA3PT-26MAY25PDXNY-NYJJONES35-2
Analysis
This market estimates a 10% chance that Jonquel Jones makes at least 2 three-pointers in an upcoming game. The current low probability reflects Jones's historical shooting patterns and role within her team's offensive system. Three-point volume depends on factors including team pace, offensive strategy, defensive adjustments by opponents, and Jones's playing time. The probability could shift based on recent performance trends, changes in team composition, or pregame information about defensive matchups. Resolution will occur at the conclusion of the relevant game, when the final three-point total becomes definitive.
- ›Jonquel Jones's career three-point attempt rate and make percentage compared to the 2+ threshold
- ›Team offensive strategy and whether the system emphasizes perimeter shooting or interior play
- ›Opponent's defensive approach and whether it extends coverage to Jones's shooting range
- ›Jones's recent game-by-game performance and any changes in playing time or role
- ›Kalshi contract pricing discrepancies (2+ at 23¢ vs. aggregated 10% probability) suggesting potential market inefficiency
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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