Will Chris Pappas receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary

The yield curve displays a stark bimodal structure with virtually no gradient within tenor buckets. All 335-day markets cluster at either 99.0% or 1.0% YES probability, while the 363-day markets show similar polarization with one notable exception: the SENATENHD26CPAP-65 contract trades at 75.0%, representing the cheapest YES probability across the entire curve. The 335-day bucket contains the bulk of liquidity concentration, though trading volume remains sparse across most markets. The curve is essentially flat within each tenor, with the primary variation occurring between discrete outcome categories rather than across time horizons. This structure reveals a market that has already priced in binary outcomes for specific primary election contests, with minimal uncertainty about timing. The market is not expressing a view that events will resolve earlier or later—rather, it is expressing near-certainty about which candidates will or will not advance from primaries, with resolution dates already fixed at 335 and 363 days. The 75.0% probability on SENATENHD26CPAP-65 stands as an outlier, suggesting genuine two-sided uncertainty about a particular Senate primary outcome, while the surrounding 99.0% and 1.0% prices indicate the market has already settled on clear favorites and long-shots across most races. The absence of a traditional yield curve slope indicates that temporal uncertainty is not the driver of pricing—outcome uncertainty is.