Will Jason Esteves receive between 10% and 15% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Democratic gubernatorial primary

The yield curve for this event family exhibits a dramatically flat structure, with all 241 constituent markets sharing an identical 360-day tenor. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display extreme bimodality: the vast majority of markets price at 1.0%, while a small cluster of high-conviction markets trade at 79–99%. This distribution reveals no traditional curve shape—there is no steepening, flattening, or inversion across time horizons. The cheapest YES probability sits at 1.0%, representing roughly 85% of all markets, while the most expensive cluster reaches 99.0%. The 24-hour volume concentration in higher-probability markets (notably $2,240.32 in GOVGANOMR26RJACRJAC-32 at 98%, and $1,215.74 combined in GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA markets) suggests active trading around specific candidate outcomes. The flat tenor structure and binary probability distribution indicate the market views this primary election event as having a highly discrete outcome space with clear favorites and long-shot candidates. The 1.0% floor across most markets reflects minimal residual probability assigned to non-frontrunner outcomes, while the 94–99% cluster identifies a small set of candidates the market considers substantially more likely. Rather than expressing uncertainty about *when* the event resolves, the market is expressing certainty about *which* outcome will occur within the fixed 360-day window. The absence of shorter-tenor markets suggests either that the resolution date is firmly fixed or that traders have not yet fragmented their positions across intermediate timeframes, keeping all liquidity concentrated at the single 360-day horizon.