James Fishback receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary
At least 10% is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will James Fishback receive at least.
Price history
37¢ current
−19¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Fishback in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 10% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 10%
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
At least 1% 68¢
Range
4¢-68¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-55
Jul 11, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
37¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$882
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · Will James Fishback receive at least
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 37¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Fishback in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 10% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-55
Event family
Will James Fishback receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
At least 1% 68¢
Current share
9%
At least 1%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-50
At least 3%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-51
At least 5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-52
At least 10%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-55
At least 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFISJFIS-57
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-60
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-65
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.