Prediction Markets This Week: April 12, 2026
A weekly snapshot of the most active prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, using live data from the SimpleFunctions indicator stack. Updated every Saturday.
Biggest Movers (non-sports)
Data from /api/public/screen?sort=volume — top markets by 24-hour volume, excluding sports and entertainment.
| Market | Venue | Price | Volume | IY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor: Mahajan | Kalshi | 14¢ | $254K | 393% |
| Hungary PM: Orbán | Polymarket | 27¢ | $1.9M | — |
| Hungary PM: Magyar | Polymarket | 74¢ | $1.6M | — |
| Bitcoin >$71,700 today | Kalshi | 64¢ | $164K | — |
| Iran conflict ends April 7 | Polymarket | 47¢ | $1.1M | — |
| Hormuz normal by end of April | Polymarket | 17¢ | $865K | — |
| California Governor: Steyer | Kalshi | 51¢ | $137K | 61% |
| Iranian regime falls by April 30 | Polymarket | 3¢ | $1.0M | — |
Key Themes This Week
Hungary goes to the polls. The largest prediction market political event since the 2024 US election. $8M+ combined volume. TISZA at 77¢ to win parliament. Full analysis: Hungary Election 2026.
Hormuz shipping still disrupted. 17¢ chance of normalization by end-April. Term structure slopes from 14¢ (Kalshi May 1) to 40¢ (June 1). Oil markets have not fully repriced. Full analysis: Strait of Hormuz Crisis.
California governor market heats up. $780K daily volume across 14 contracts, 19 months before the election. Primary-general spread on Shiller (76¢ primary, 6¢ general) is the structural trade. Full analysis: California Governor 2026.
Crypto daily markets remain active. Bitcoin daily contracts (71,700 strike alone) continue to be the most liquid non-political Kalshi category.
Screener Highlights
Highest Implied Yield (τ > 7 days): Run: sf screen --iy-min 500 --tau-min 7 --limit 10
Most Liquid (LAS < 0.05): Run: sf screen --has-orderbook --las-max 0.05 --sort las
Unloved Markets (no thesis, Polymarket, τ > 30): Run: sf screen --without-thesis --venue polymarket --tau-min 30
How to Use This
Every link in this post hits a live API endpoint. The data updates every 15 minutes. Bookmark the screener or install the CLI:
npm install -g @spfunctions/cli
sf screen --sort volume --limit 20
Previous weeks: What Is Going On in the World — April 2026
Next update: April 19, 2026.
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