Will Kostadin Kostadinov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

Kostadinov is priced at a negligible 1% probability despite recent upward momentum (doubling from 1¢ to 2¢ over seven days), suggesting either emerging political developments or minimal trading liquidity driving the move. The $8.2M open interest vastly outweighs the $249K daily volume, indicating illiquid positioning that could amplify price swings on modest order flow. With the market closing exactly on election day (April 19, 2026), there's minimal post-election price discovery window, making this a relatively binary outcome bet on Bulgarian coalition dynamics.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Bulgaria following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bulgaria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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