Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.4%?

93¢mid

Bid/Ask 87/98¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·11d remaining

KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T-0.4

7-day price3 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 11¢ spread suggesting some theoretical liquidity. The astronomical implied yields (494% for Yes, 22,136% for No) are artifacts of near-zero pricing rather than genuine market signals, and with only 11 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market is highly vulnerable to sharp repricing once real trading occurs. Italy's recent economic data would need to show significant deterioration for Q1 2026 GDP growth to fall below -0.4% YoY, making the current zero valuation suspect and likely reflecting a dead market rather than genuine bearish sentiment.

Resolution rules

If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above -0.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 501.3%

IY (No) 22453.3%

Adj IY 9808%

CRI 7

Overround 6.2%

LAS 0.13

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	501.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22453.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9808%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:12:23 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T-0.4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →