Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.4%?

93¢mid

Bid/Ask 87/98¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·11d remaining

KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T-0.4

7-day price5 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 11¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (22,135.9% on No) are artifacts of near-zero pricing rather than genuine market conviction, and the sharp 7-day rally from 23¢ to 87¢ suggests recent price discovery in a thin market with only 11 days to expiry. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7 and resolution imminent on 4/30/2026, this contract appears abandoned by traders and should be treated with extreme caution.

Resolution rules

If Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 is above -0.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 501.3%

IY (No) 22453.3%

Adj IY 9808%

CRI 7

Overround 4.0%

LAS 0.13

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	501.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22453.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9808%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:12:23 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T-0.4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →