Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?

The Republican probability in FL-09 has collapsed 63% over seven days (from 44¢ to 27¢), suggesting significant new information favoring Democrats, though the 4¢ spread and modest $282 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that may amplify price swings. The extreme 499% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the steep discount, but realized volatility of 262% and a Cliff Risk Index of 3 warrant caution—this market exhibits high sensitivity to late-breaking developments with nearly two years until resolution. The neutral regime and 0.4 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is still digesting recent shifts rather than in a period of sustained directional conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade