Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

At 1¢, Abbott's odds are priced at an extreme discount despite $1.25M in open interest, suggesting strong consensus he won't be a viable presidential candidate by 2028. The 24-hour volume of nearly $49K indicates active trading despite the negligible price, likely driven by hedging or speculative positions rather than genuine viability concerns. With a 0¢ spread and nearly four years until expiration, this appears to be a parking spot for long-shot bets rather than a liquid market reflecting meaningful uncertainty about Abbott's candidacy.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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