Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?

This market is pricing János Lázár at zero probability despite $449k in open interest and $2.2k in 24-hour volume, suggesting either strong consensus against his candidacy or potential liquidity concentration among a few positions. The 0¢ price with a 0¢ spread indicates minimal trading activity at the extremes, which is typical for long-shot candidates but warrants caution on execution if attempting to trade. With the market closing exactly on election day (4/12/2026), there's no buffer for post-election resolution clarity, making this a binary event with limited arbitrage opportunities.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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