Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware?

Chris Coons is priced at an extremely high 94¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the market has largely settled on his nomination as near-certain. The asymmetric implied yields—15.5% for Yes versus 3801% for No—reflect the lopsided probability, though the No side's extreme yield indicates minimal liquidity on that end with only $13,943 in open interest across both sides. With 150 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 16, this market appears to be pricing in Coons' incumbency advantage while leaving room for unexpected primary challengers to emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Delaware. If no 2026 Delaware Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Delaware Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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