Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.6%?

96¢mid

Bid/Ask 91/100¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·11d remaining

KXITCPIPREL-26APR30-T1.6

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a 9¢ spread despite being priced at 0¢, suggesting no meaningful trading activity. The astronomical implied yields (329.9% for Yes, 33,728% for No) are artifacts of the zero price rather than genuine market signals. With only 11 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this contract is essentially dead and should be disregarded as a reliable inflation forecast.

Resolution rules

If Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 is above 1.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 330.5%

IY (No) 33793.2%

Adj IY 15226%

CRI 10

Overround 4.6%

LAS 0.10

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	330.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33793.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15226%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 3:54:49 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 3:53:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXITCPIPREL-26APR30-T1.6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →