Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump Jr. is priced at an extremely low 1% implied probability, reflecting near-zero market confidence in a candidacy that has not been formally announced. The market shows robust liquidity with $160.8K in 24-hour volume against $1.15M open interest, suggesting active trader interest despite the negligible odds, though the zero spread indicates tight pricing efficiency. With over four years until resolution, this appears to be a speculative/novelty position rather than a serious electoral contender, as Trump Jr. would face significant constitutional and political barriers compared to other potential Republican candidates.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Regime

Trade