Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Eric Trump's odds at 1¢ reflect extremely low conviction that he'll secure the presidency, despite $1.6M in open interest suggesting meaningful speculative activity around this outcome. The $60.8K in 24-hour volume paired with zero spread indicates reasonable liquidity for such a long-tail event, though the 1% probability likely underestimates his name recognition and potential political positioning relative to other non-frontrunner candidates. With nearly four years until resolution, this market appears to be pricing in both the structural difficulty of winning without prior electoral experience and the crowded Republican primary field that would need to clear for him to emerge as the nominee.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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