Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

DeSantis's odds have collapsed 67% over the past week, dropping from 3¢ to 1¢, suggesting significant deterioration in his perceived viability as a 2028 candidate. The 1% implied probability is exceptionally low for a major political figure with nearly four years until the election, indicating the market has largely priced him out of contention. Despite this extreme bearishness, the market maintains substantial liquidity with $209.7M open interest and $94.2M in 24-hour volume, though the tight 0¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest consensus around the depressed valuation rather than active disagreement.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Regime

Trade