Will Dimitar Glavchev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

This market shows extreme pricing inefficiency with Glavchev trading at 0¢ despite holding the position of Deputy Prime Minister and leading a coalition partner, suggesting either severe illiquidity or market participants dismissing his viability entirely. The 7-day collapse from 1¢ to 0¢ combined with minimal 24h volume of $212.54 against $7.5M open interest indicates the market lacks sufficient liquidity to price tail-risk scenarios, making the zero price potentially unreliable rather than reflective of true probability. With the election just over 18 months away and Bulgaria's volatile political landscape, a complete dismissal of the sitting deputy PM warrants skepticism about market depth rather than confidence in the outcome.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Bulgaria following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bulgaria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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