Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

This market shows an extreme cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing Meituan's chances at 1¢ while Kalshi values the same outcome at 22¢—a 22x discrepancy that suggests significant mispricing on one platform. The 1¢ price on Polymarket appears artificially depressed given that Meituan is a major Chinese tech company with substantial AI research capabilities, making the near-zero probability seem disconnected from fundamental competitive dynamics in the LLM space. With $17.4M in open interest but only $1.25M in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the size of positions, which could explain the pricing inefficiency between venues.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Regime

Trade