Will Charlie McClintock be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Charlie McClintock is priced at an extreme 3¢ with virtually no 24-hour volume despite $14.5M in open interest, suggesting this is a low-liquidity long-tail market where the price may not reflect active trading. The implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an astronomical 26,972%, indicating the market is pricing in near-zero probability with minimal conviction—typical for obscure candidate markets where the spread equals the bid-ask price. With the primary closing in 44 days and recent price movement from 4¢ to 3¢, this appears to be a speculative position with high cliff risk (32), meaning resolution uncertainty could create sharp repricing closer to the June 2 deadline.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade