Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This market prices Musk's candidacy at an extremely low 1% probability, reflecting legal barriers (the natural-born citizen requirement) that make his election constitutionally impossible rather than merely unlikely. The 0¢ spread and substantial $1.28M open interest suggest strong consensus around this near-zero valuation, though the $41K daily volume is modest relative to the open interest, indicating limited active trading despite clear market conviction. With nearly four years until resolution, this appears to function more as a novelty or hedge position than a genuine probability assessment of a viable outcome.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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