Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?

This market shows extreme illiquidity despite substantial open interest of $1.19M, with a 0¢ price indicating the market has priced Toroczkai at essentially zero probability of becoming Hungary's next PM. The $6,000 in 24-hour volume against the massive open interest suggests the position is largely locked in, making this a speculative bet on a low-probability outcome rather than an actively traded contract. With the resolution date exactly matching the April 12, 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election, traders appear to have dismissed Toroczkai's candidacy entirely, though the zero price and zero spread create execution challenges for anyone seeking to build a position.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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