Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

JD Vance is priced at a modest 19% probability of winning the 2028 presidency, generating an unusually high 166.9% implied yield on the affirmative side—a significant asymmetry compared to the 9.2% yield on the "No" position that suggests strong conviction among "No" bettors. With $681k in open interest and $8.9k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is moderate but the zero spread indicates reasonable market efficiency, though the 933-day timeframe to resolution creates substantial cliff risk (index of 4) that could amplify volatility as the election approaches.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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