Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This novelty market is pricing LeBron James at just 1% implied probability despite substantial liquidity of $1.18M in open interest and $80K in 24-hour volume, suggesting traders are treating this as a pure entertainment bet rather than a genuine political outcome. The zero spread indicates tight pricing efficiency, though the market's legitimacy hinges on resolution criteria—the incomplete resolution source language raises questions about how edge cases would be handled. With roughly 3.5 years until expiration, this appears to be a long-duration speculative position where the 1¢ price reflects near-zero genuine electoral viability rather than any meaningful uncertainty.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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