Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Medvedev's odds have collapsed from 2¢ to 1¢ over the past week, reflecting either deteriorating confidence in his grass-court performance or broader market repricing as the 2026 tournament approaches. The 1% implied probability is exceptionally low for a top-10 player, suggesting the market may be overweighting recent form or underweighting his historical Wimbledon competitiveness relative to other venues. With $23.6M in open interest but only $183 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 1¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Wimbledon (https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

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