Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

The Yes position trades at an extremely depressed 16¢ with a 647% implied yield, suggesting severe underpricing relative to the ~3.7% midpoint of the 3.5-3.9% target range—particularly given the Bank of England's recent guidance and historical inflation clustering around this level. The 20¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity despite $1.3M open interest, while the 2824% realized volatility and 10.31 vol ratio signal extreme price instability that may not reflect fundamental uncertainty about UK inflation outcomes. With 275 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this appears to be a mispriced tail bet driven by low trading activity rather than genuine market consensus.

Resolution rules

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

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