Will Matjaž Han be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

This market has collapsed to zero probability despite $13.7k in open interest, representing an extreme 41-cent drop over seven days with zero 24-hour volume, suggesting either a decisive political development eliminating Han's candidacy or complete market abandonment. The zero spread and matching null pricing across both Polymarket and Kalshi indicate no active traders are willing to back Han at any price point ahead of the March 2026 Slovenian elections. The substantial open interest relative to volume suggests early positions are now underwater with no liquidity to exit, creating a potential trap for holders.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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