Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Amanda Lind is priced at zero probability despite 18 months until Sweden's September 2026 parliamentary elections, suggesting the market has effectively ruled out her candidacy with high confidence. The $22.4K open interest and $576K daily volume indicate modest but meaningful liquidity for a niche political market, though the zero spread reflects the extreme certainty of her non-selection. This pricing is notable given that Lind, as a Green Party co-leader, could theoretically become PM through coalition negotiations, yet the market shows no hedging demand whatsoever—worth monitoring if her party's polling improves significantly before the election.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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