Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Michelle Obama's candidacy is priced at an extremely low 1% probability, reflecting strong market consensus that she will not run or win in 2028. The market shows healthy liquidity with $12.9M in 24-hour volume against $1.47M open interest, though the zero spread suggests minimal active trading at the extremes. With nearly four years until resolution, this appears to be a stable long-tail outcome market rather than a volatile mispricing opportunity.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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