Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This market is pricing Trump at an extremely depressed 2% probability despite substantial open interest of $481,204, suggesting either strong consensus against a Trump 2028 bid or potential mispricing given his historical political resilience. The zero spread indicates tight liquidity at current levels, while the modest 24-hour volume of $10,780.64 relative to open interest suggests limited recent trading activity and possible stagnation in price discovery. With over four years until resolution on 11/7/2028, the extraordinarily low price warrants scrutiny—such extreme odds are unusual for a major political figure with demonstrated electoral viability.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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