Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Tucker Carlson's 2028 presidential odds have compressed sharply from 3¢ to 2¢ over the past week, reflecting declining market confidence in a candidacy that currently carries just a 2% implied probability. The market shows healthy liquidity with $165k in 24-hour volume and $356k open interest, though the zero spread suggests tight pricing with limited arbitrage opportunities. With roughly four years until the November 2028 election, this low probability likely reflects market skepticism about Carlson mounting a viable campaign or overcoming structural barriers to a media personality's path to the presidency.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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