Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

The market prices Tillis's confirmation vote for Warsh at 85¢ with extremely tight cross-venue alignment (both Polymarket and Kalshi at 85¢), suggesting strong consensus despite modest 24-hour volume of $166.7 and a notable 8¢ spread. The "No" side shows an anomalous 2,888% implied yield reflecting minimal liquidity on that outcome, while realized volatility of 309% and a cliff risk index of 6 indicate this market experiences sharp price swings despite the high conviction price—likely driven by sparse information arrivals (2.2/h) and low open interest of $5,994. With 72 days to expiry, the 2-cent decline from 87¢ over seven days suggests slight erosion in conviction, though the near-perfect venue agreement implies the 85¢ level reflects genuine market belief rather than mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade