Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (84%) that Senator Tillis will vote yes on the next Fed Chair nominee, yet shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite $2,405 open interest and a modest 5¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—25% for yes versus 804% for no—reveal severe illiquidity on the no side, suggesting the market may be overconfident; the 402% risk-adjusted yield indicates substantial tail risk if Tillis votes against confirmation. With 257 days to expiry and only a 3¢ gap to Polymarket (85¢), the market appears fairly priced across venues but potentially mispriced relative to actual political uncertainty around Fed Chair confirmation politics.

Resolution rules

If Thom Tillis votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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