Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Janez Janša commands an exceptionally high 82% implied probability across both Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting strong consensus that he will become Slovenia's next Prime Minister following the March 2026 parliamentary elections. The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum over the past week, surging from 49¢ to 82¢—a 67% gain—suggesting a recent political development or polling shift favoring his candidacy. With $16.1M in open interest and tight 2¢ spreads, liquidity is robust, though the 3/22/2026 expiry leaves roughly 14 months for political conditions to potentially shift this heavily-favored outcome.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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