Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assembly member, is priced at just 1% to win the 2028 presidency, reflecting the extreme long-shot nature of a candidate with no national profile or party nomination pathway. The market shows healthy liquidity with $1.37M in open interest and $62.6M in 24-hour volume, though the zero spread suggests minimal active two-sided trading at these extreme odds. With roughly 3.5 years until resolution, this appears to be a novelty/entertainment market rather than a serious probability assessment, as Mamdani would need to overcome massive structural barriers including securing a major party nomination or mounting a viable third-party campaign.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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