Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Whitmer is priced at an extremely depressed 1% probability despite nearly $1M in open interest, suggesting either strong consensus against her candidacy or minimal market attention to this particular outcome. The $97.8K in 24-hour volume indicates reasonable liquidity for such a long-dated contract (roughly 4 years out), though the zero spread suggests thin active trading at the current price level. This pricing appears consistent with her status as a non-frontrunner in early 2028 presidential speculation, though the substantial open interest warrants monitoring for any significant political developments that could shift her viability.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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