Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?

69¢

Bid/Ask 62/67¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $1,120·OI $35,911.12·Closes May 25, 2026·36d remaining

KXEPLTOP4-26-AVL

7-day price135 snapshots · 25 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the No side offering 1,643% annualized return versus 617% for Yes, suggesting the 64¢ price may overweight Aston Villa's Champions League qualification odds despite their current positioning. The 394% realized volatility and 1.53 vol ratio indicate significant price swings, yet the modest $60 daily volume and $36k open interest reveal thin liquidity that could amplify moves as we approach the May 25 expiry in just 36 days. The neutral regime and steady 0.8 info arrivals per hour suggest this is pricing in genuine uncertainty rather than sentiment-driven mispricing, though the wide 6¢ spread reflects the low-liquidity environment.

Resolution rules

If Aston Villa is one of the English Premier League Top 4 Finishers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 623.0%

IY (No) 1658.3%

Adj IY 1471%

CRI 2

RV 483%

VR 1.88

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	623.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1658.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1471%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	483%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.88	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.11	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 4:09:06 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 4:08:15 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEPLTOP4-26-AVL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →