Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,982 in open interest, making the 41¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 294.1% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests significant mispricing, though this could reflect genuine uncertainty about Ohtani's 2026 availability following his recent shoulder surgery rather than an arbitrage opportunity. With 186 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the illiquidity and wide 5¢ spread indicate traders should expect difficulty entering or exiting meaningful positions.

Resolution rules

If Shohei Ohtani leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

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